Lower oil price adds to economic pressure on Russia
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buy canada goose jacket cheap MOSCOW, Aug 19 (Reuters) A fall in the price of canada goose coats Urals crude oil, the canada goose store benchmark on which Russia bases its budget cheap canada goose uk calculations, is adding Canada Goose Online to the government problems at a time when western sanctions are already hurting the economy. buy canada goose jacket cheap
canada goose store Urals, fell below $100 per barrel on Monday buy canada goose jacket for the first time in 15 months and was trading just below $97 on Tuesday, extending a trend of falling oil prices that reflects abundant supply buy canada goose jacket cheap on global markets. canada goose store
Russia relies on oil and gas for around two thirds of exports canada goose uk black friday and half of federal budget revenues. Over canada goose uk outlet the course of a year, each $1 fall in the oil price wipes around $1.4 billion off federal tax revenues.
canada goose The oil sector, along with finance and defence, is also among the targets of western sanctions against Russia over its annexation Canada Goose Parka of Crimea and what cheap Canada Goose the United States and European Union say is its backing for separatist rebels in east Ukraine. canada goose
cheap Canada Goose Analysts say the short term pain from lower oil prices should be limited, given the way Russia budget has been canada goose calculated, but strains will grow more severe if they fall further in the years ahead. cheap Canada Goose
canada goose clearance sale first thing to remember is that the oil price projected by the Finance Ministry Canada Goose Jackets is. $104 average for the year that still looks conservative, said Vladimir Kolychev, chief economist at VTB Capital. if the oil price falls Canada Goose sale to $90 we still have $105 Canada Goose Coats On Sale average. canada goose clearance sale
Canada Goose online He estimates that the budget presently balances canada goose clearance sale at around $103 per barrel slightly more pessimistic than the Finance Ministry, which projects a 0.4 percent budget surplus given its $104 per barrel average oil price forecast for the year. Canada Goose online
canada goose deals Russia budget arithmetic is also helped by a steep fall in the rouble, which has led Canada Goose online the Finance Ministry to slash its deficit forecasts for this year and next. canada goose deals
Canada Goose sale lower dollar oil price is to Canada Goose Outlet some extent mitigated by the weaker rouble that an important point, said Neil Shearing, canada goose black friday goose coats sale chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London. Canada Goose sale
Canada Goose Outlet FISCAL RULES The short term economic pain is also limited because, under fiscal rules adopted two years ago, budget calculations are based on the average long term oil price, insulating spending decisions from short term market changes. https://www.canadagooseoutletcoats.com Canada Goose Outlet
Today price remains comfortably above $93 per barrel, the price used in the budget to cap government expenditures. When the oil price is above this level, additional revenues are earmarked for the government rainy day canada goose uk shop Reserve Fund.
this year there is no pressure uk canada goose on the Finance Ministry because in the budget projections they still have about 300 billion roubles ($8.3 billion) to be canada goose factory sale transferred to the Reserve Fund. They can simply not transfer that, said Kolychev.
canadian goose jacket The Reserve Fund, presently worth $87 billion or around 3 percent of GDP, is invested abroad in low risk bonds of western governments. canadian goose jacket
Canada Goose Parka It is just one part of the $470 billion that Russia has invested abroad in gold and forex reserves a sizeable buffer available to protect the economy from short term shocks. Canada Goose Parka
canada goose coats Nevertheless, analysts warn, lower oil prices are a long term concern for Russia as the fiscal reserves remain relatively small, leaving the country vulnerable to possibly steeper falls in the oil price in future. canada goose coats
canada goose coats on sale Russia ultimately aims to increase the Reserve Fund to 7 percent of gross domestic product a goal which won be achieved until 2019 on the government projections. canada goose coats on sale
The International Monetary Fund warned last year that until the 7 percent target is reached, fiscal reserves will be low to adequately insulate against a large drop in oil prices
Rebuilding the reserves is important said Shearing from Capital Economics. doesn take much of a fall in the oil price to start pushing up the deficit to 3 4 percent of canada goose clearance GDP. Then 7 percent of GDP in terms of rainy day savings doesn last you very long.
buy canada goose jacket He uk canada goose outlet calculates that at an canadian goose jacket oil price of $85 per barrel, Russia would run a deficit of around 3 percent of GDP enough to wipe out the whole of the Reserve Fund in a single year. buy canada goose jacket
canada goose black friday sale sounds like a lot of money, but it can go quite quickly if oil prices were to fall much further, he said, noting that new production technologies are adding to the risk. perfectly possible given the shale canada goose coats on sale oil revolution and the increase in global supply. (Reporting by Jason Bush; Editing by Mark Trevelyan) canada goose black friday sale.